基于系统动力学的装备研制项目风险传递研究

通过对装备研制项目进行系统分析，确定了项目技术风险、费用风险和工期风险三者相互之间的影响方式和传递关系，建立了基于系统动力学的项目研制活动风险传递因果关系模型。运用VensimPLE软件对某型装备研制项目研制活动的技术风险、费用风险和工期风险的变化规律进行了仿真。结果表明，技术风险对费用风险和工期风险有着显著的影响，这三者均随项目活动的推进而逐渐降低。3种类型风险随时间的动态变化可作为项目风险管理工作的参考和决策支持。

Research on the Risk Transfer of Equipment Development Project Based on System Dynamics

In this paper, an analysis of the equipment development project was given. The effect way and transfer relationship among the technique risk, cost risk and time risk were developed, and the model of risk transmission of these three factors was set up. Then the risk transfer causal relation- ship model of the equipment development project was set up. The change regulation of a type of equipment development project＇s three risk factors was simulated with Vensim_PLE. The results showed that the technique risk had a great influence on the cost risk and the time risk and these three risks all reduced along with the project move forward. The change regulation with time of these three risks could be support and reference of the risk management of the project.