| 基于模糊贝叶斯的导弹武器系统可靠性和可用性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨继坤,袁峰,翁璐,徐廷学,王浩伟.基于模糊贝叶斯的导弹武器系统可靠性和可用性分析[J].海军航空工程学院学报,2013,28(5):543-548. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨继坤 袁峰 翁璐 徐廷学 王浩伟 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]海军航空工程学院研究生管理大队,山东烟台264001 [2]海军航空工程学院兵器科学与技术系,山东烟台264001 [3]91960部队,广东汕头515074 [4]海军装备部军械保障部,北京100086 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家部委基础科研基金资助项目（40108） |
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| 摘 要： | 综合考虑了装备、保障系统、管理和人员、保障方案等要素，提出了一种基于模糊贝叶斯的导弹武器系统可靠性和可用性分析方法，将先验信息和样本数据有效融合，采用模糊随机变量来处理数据的不确定。通过算例分析，验证了模型的有效性。结论表明，该方法所得的评估结果符合装备的实际情况。
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| 关 键 词： | 模糊随机变量 贝叶斯理论 导弹武器系统 可靠性 可用性 |
Reliability and Availability Analysis of Missile Weapon System Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Theory |
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| YANG Ji-kun,YUAN Feng,WENG Lu,XU Ting-xue and WANG Hao-wei.Reliability and Availability Analysis of Missile Weapon System Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Theory[J].Journal of Naval Aeronautical Engineering Institute,2013,28(5):543-548. |
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| Authors: | YANG Ji-kun YUAN Feng WENG Lu XU Ting-xue and WANG Hao-wei |
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| Institution: | 1. Naval Aeronautical and Astronautical University a. Graduate Students＇ Brigade; b. Department of Ordnance Science and Technology, Yantai Shandong 264001, China; 2. The 91960th Unit of PLA, Shantou Guangdong 515074, China; 3. Ordnance Guarantee Branch of NED, Beijing 100086, China) |
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| Abstract: | Considering all equipments, support system, management and personnel, and plan, a new modeling method for determining the reliability and availability of a missile weapon system was proposed based on fuzzy Bayesian theory. The model made fifll use of prior information and statistics, and adopted fuzzy random vari- ables to handle uncertainty of data. The suggested modeling method was illustrated on an example. The resuhs showed that the methods based on fuzzy Bayesian theory were applicative to missile weapon system. |
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| Keywords: | fuzzy random variables Bayesian theory＇ missile weapon system reliability availability |
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