考虑环境干扰的大型贮液箱结构安全评估模型

针对大型贮液箱(LLT)结构安全评估面临的先验信息缺失、监测信息不完全可靠等问题，基于置信规则库(BRB)和有限元方法(FEM)，提出了一种考虑环境干扰的大型贮液箱结构安全评估模型。基于行业标准和专家知识，借助有限元方法进行评估模型初始参数的估计；基于信息一致性方法计算指标可信度，以反映实际工程中扰动因素对监测数据的影响；提出一种新的融合方法，将指标可信度合理融合到模型推理过程中，完成评估模型的构建；选用10⁵ m³石油储罐作为研究对象，对所提模型的有效性进行验证。研究结果表明：所提模型不仅能有效处理监测数据不可靠问题，也能够将大型贮液箱复杂系统内部结构机理考虑在内，有效克服先验信息不足给评估精度带来的影响。

Structural safety assessment model of large liquid tanks considering environmental disturbance

To solve the problems of lack of prior information and incomplete reliability of monitoring data in structural safety assessment of large liquid tanks (LLT), a structural safety assessment model of large liquid tanks considering environmental disturbance is proposed based on the belief rule base (BRB) and finite element method (FEM). First, the FEM estimates the basic parameters of the proposed model using industry standards and subject-matter knowledge. Secondly, the index credibility is calculated based on the information consistency method to reflect the influence of disturbance factors on the monitoring data in actual engineering. Then, a new fusion method can be used to integrate the index credibility into the model reasoning process to complete the construction of the proposed model. Finally, a 100,000 m3 oil storage tank is selected as the research object to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model can not only effectively deal with the problem of unreliable monitoring data, but also take into account the internal structure mechanism of large liquid tanks, thereby minimizing the negative effects of a lack of prior knowledge on the accuracy of the assessment.