基于DW-MEE的不停航施工情境下机场安全风险预警

为开展不停航施工情境下机场安全风险预警，集成了动态权和物元可拓分析法（DW-MEE），构建风险预警模型。通过历史事故分析、文献及规章制度分析、专家访谈的方式初步构建不停航施工情境下机场安全风险预警指标体系，采用德尔菲法筛选出33个指标。将不停航施工情境下机场综合安全风险警情和单指标警情分成无警、轻警、中警、重警4个等级。构建基于动态权和物元可拓分析法的动态预警模型。结果表明：10个样本机场，1个机场处于红色重警状态，3个机场处于黄色轻警状态，6个机场处于绿色无警状态。飞行员的情境意识、业务技能水平、机场不停航施工安全监管能力3个指标对综合警情影响最敏感，施工对地勤工作的影响、不停航施工应急预案的科学性、供电设备的维护保养情况3个指标对综合警情影响最不敏感。

Airport safety risk early warning under circumstance of non-suspend air construction based on DW-MEE

To carry out airport safety risk early warning under the circumstance of non-suspend air construction, a risk early warning model is constructed by integrating dynamic weight and matter-element extension analysis (DW-MEE). Through the analysis of historical accidents, literature, rules and regulations, and expert interviews, airport safety risk early warning index system under the circumstance of non-suspend air construction was preliminarily constructed, and 33 indexes were selected by Delphi method. The comprehensive safety risk warning situation and single index warning situation of the airport under the circumstance of non-suspend air construction were divided into four grades: no alarm, light alarm, medium alarm and heavy alarm. The dynamic warning model based on dynamic weight and matter-element extension analysis was established. The study found that among 10 sample airports, 1 is in red heavy alarm state, 3 are in yellow light alarm state, and 6 airports are in green no alarm state. The three indexes of pilot’s situational awareness, pilot’s professional skill level and airport non-suspend air construction safety supervision ability are the most sensitive to the influence of alarm situation, while the three indexes of construction’s influence on ground service, the scientific nature of non-stop construction emergency plan and the maintenance of power supply equipment are the least sensitive to the influence of comprehensive warning situation.