What is wrong with space system cost models? A survey and assessment of cost estimating approaches |
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| Institution: | 1. Solar System Missions Division, ESA/ESTEC, Noordwijk, Netherlands;2. Office for Support to New Member States, ESA/ESTEC, Netherlands;3. Science Payload Instrument Section, ESA/ESTEC, Netherlands;1. Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka, India;2. Defense Research and Development Laboratory, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh 500058, India;1. University of Basilicata, School of Engineering, 10, Ateneo Lucano Street, 85100 Potenza, Italy;2. National Research Council, Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis (IMAA), c/da S.Loja, 85050 Tito Scalo (PZ), Italy;1. Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics SB RAS, Irkutsk, Russia;2. Research Centre for Astrophysics and Geophysics MAS, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia;3. Irkutsk State Technical University, Irkutsk, Russia;1. Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 252 5210, Japan;2. Planetary Exploration Research Center, Chiba Institute of Technology, Chiba, Japan;3. Hokkaido University, Hokkaido, Japan;4. Senshu University, Tokyo, Japan;5. University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan;7. Okayama University, Okayama, Japan;1. Politecnico di Milano, Polo Territoriale di Lecco, Via M. d′Oggiono 18/a, 23900 Lecco, Italy;2. Micos Engineering GmbH, Dübendorf (ZH), Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | Despite several decades of research and refinement in cost estimating tools and practices, the final cost of US space programs continues to exceed initial cost estimates by an average of more than 45%. Thus, program cost models not only exhibit error, they are seriously biased. A structured review surveyed techniques, approaches, models and conceptual tools related to space program cost estimating, to understand cost in complex space systems. Analysis shows problems of cost estimating result from the growing complexity of space programs, failures in managing growth, and mission failures. Although there is greater expectation for the models to accurately predict program costs, the current models used for seeking funding for large space programs are inadequate due to (1) inability to predict future, (2) lack of insight, and (3) process replaces judgment in decision making. |
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| Keywords: | Cost estimating Cost models Systems engineering management |
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