地地弹道导弹可用性仿真评估系统构建

阐述了地地弹道导弹可用性评估的重要性,并以此为需求牵引,提出了以MTMC-RDEDS(Mission Time Monte Carlo Random Discrete Event Dynamic Systems)为核心的可用性建模与仿真一体化框架,结合实际应用,以模型重用技术为基础,构建了拥有丰富建模与仿真知识库、模块化设计与开放式接口的导弹可用性仿真评估系统总体框架及软件层次结构,并给出了涉及工作状态、维修保障、统计优化在内的核心仿真模型与算法,探讨了系统实现的关键技术,包括:随机变量建模、武器系统建模、仿真系统可信度评估.利用VC++和相关软件开发了地地弹道导弹可用性仿真评估系统,给出了仿真运行界面,并进行实例分析,验证模型和系统的有效性.仿真的结果与实际试验情况吻合较好,表明该动态评估方法快捷有效,评估系统建设方案合理可行,适用于工程分析,不失为地地弹道导弹可用性评估的一种有效手段.

Availability simulation assessment system of ground launched ballistic missile

Significance of availability assessment of ground launched ballistic missile was proposed. An modeling and simulation framework was put forward on the basis of mission time Monte Carlo random discrete event dynamic systems(MTMC-RDEDS) model. And based on model reusing technology, the simulation assessment system frame and software hierarchy were designed, which has great model and knowledge base, modular design and open interfaces. The key simulation model was given and the algorithm to achieve system was explored, which refer to working state, maintain and support, statistical model and optimization model. The key technique of simulation system was discussed, including stochastic variable modeling, weapon system modeling, and simulation system reliability assessment. The ground launched ballistic missile simulation assessment system was developed using VC++ and related software, and a simulation example was given to verify the validity of the model and system. The agreement of the final computation results with the experimental data indicates this method could be used to estimate the system availability quickly and effectively at engineering analyses, the assessment system is validity and superiority, and provided an effective means for the availability evaluation.