空管人因失效概率的THERP-CREAM预测方法

管制员的人为差错是导致航空器空中相撞的主要诱因，对空管人因失效概率进行有效预测是一个难题。为此，提出一种基于人误率预测技术（THERP）与认知可靠性和失误率分析模型CREAM）的组合空管人因失效概率预测方法，基于THERP 技术二叉树模型构建事故发展基本脉络，再基于CREAM 方法对各个人误行为触发概率进行修正，从而得出更为准确的概率预测结果。通过相似事故的对比分析，结果表明：本文提出的预测方法可识别关键性的事故影响因子，以便制定有针对性的管控措施，从而为研究预测空管人因失效概率提供了一种有效的分析手段。

THERP-CREAM Prediction Method for Failure Probabilityof Human Factor of Air Traffic Control

The human error of air traffic controller is the main cause of the aircraft collision in the air, and it is a difficult problem to effectively predict the failure probability of human factor of Air Traffic Control (ATC). For this, on the basis of Technique of Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) and Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM), a hybrid prediction method is proposed for failure probability of ATC human factor. When using THERP to evaluate the complex behaviors of controllers, it is difficult to accurately quantify various effects with fewer available data and rough correction calculations. CREAM is introduced to make up for the shortcomings of THERP by quantifying human behavior factors from the early stage and incorporating them into the background reasons for comprehensive consideration, in order to improve the prediction reliability for failure probability of ATC human factor. The actual example shows that the method can not only carry out a more scientific and reasonable analysis, but also find the weak links to formulate targeted control measures. This provides an effective analysis method for studying the failure probability prediction of ATC human factor.