基于马尔可夫链的空间站推进1553B通信系统可靠性分析

推进功能的正常实现为空间站长期在轨运行提供重要保障。1553B通信系统作为推进功能的重要组成部分，承担着推进系统与外界进行数据交互的任务，其可靠性设计至关重要。为提高1553B通信系统可靠性，分别对包含数据隔离芯片在内的远程终端及其处理器进行双余度冗余设计。本文通过建立故障树对1553B通信系统可靠性进行分析，并引入平均无故障时间、可靠度等定量指标，基于马尔科夫链建立可靠性模型进行定量计算。结果表明，1553B通信系统平均无故障时间增加1.947倍，可靠度增长3.89%，故障概率则下降超98%，由此验证了双余度冗余设计能够有效地提升1553B通信系统的可靠性。

Reliability Analysis of Space Station Propulsion 1553B Communication System Based on Markov Chain

Long term in-orbit operation of the space station is guaranteed by the normal realization of propulsion function. 1553B communication system, which is an important part of propulsion function, undertakes the task of data interaction between the propulsion system and the outside, so its reliability design is very important. In order to improve the reliability of the 1553B communication system, the remote terminal including the data isolation chip and its processor are designed with dual redundancy respectively. The reliability of 1553B communication system is analyzed by establishing a fault tree, and the indicators such as MTTF and reliability are introduced to calculate quantitatively by establishing a reliability model based on the Markov chain. The results show that the MTTF of the 1553B communication system increases by 1.947 times, the reliability increases by 3.89%, and the failure probability decreases by more than 98%, which verifies that the design of the dual redundancy can improve the reliability of the 1553B communication system effectively.