| Abstract: | This paper makes the attempt to illustrate the need for a detailed operational analysis of future space transportation systems with the help of computer-based simulation models. The basic approach deemed suitable for such a systems simulation is explained in some detail. A reference program (100,000 Mg payload per year during 25 years) for a reference mission (heavy cargo transport to GEO for SPS construction) has been selected. A base-line launch vehicle (fully reusable ballistic all chemical three stage vehicle) has been defined, which is considered a serious applicant for such a mission. It was found that the take-off mass of this type of vehicle should be as large as practical from the viewpoint of cost-effectiveness. The example chosen has a GLOW of 10,000 Mg and lifts more than 100 Mg to GEO.With consideration of the operational parameters the simulation model evaluates the annual production rates, inventory of stages, utilization of facilities and operational cost, which amount within this frame of reference to about 96 $/kg net payload delivered to GEO in terms of 1980 dollars and contribute the main share to the total transportation cost. |
