风偏差对火箭最大气动载荷精度的影响

高空风的预报精度对运载火箭的飞行安全有重要影响，主要表现在对运载火箭飞行中的最大气动载荷的精度影响。以某地区实况风为基准，分析了高空风预报值产生的风偏差对火箭最大气动载荷参数精度的影响。结果表明:最大气动载荷预报值的精度随高空风预报时效延长而降低，其相对误差从第1天的5.68%增长到第11天的26.49%；且最大气动载荷预报值精度与季节有关，该预报精度在秋季最高，春季最低。研究结果在火箭发射的飞行保障及安全决策方面具有参考价值。 

Influence of wind deviation on rocket maximum aerodynamic load accuracy

The prediction accuracy of upper wind has an important impact on the flight safety of launch vehicle, which is mainly manifested in the impact on the accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load. Based on wind field from sounding data in a region, the influence of wind deviation caused by upper wind forecast on the accuracy of rocket maximum aerodynamic load is analyzed. It is found that the accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast is significantly reduced with the extension of the upper wind forecast time. The relative error increases from 5.68% on the first day to 26.49% on the 11th day; the accuracy of the maximum aerodynamic load forecast is related to the season, with the highest forecast accuracy in autumn and the lowest in spring. These findings have reference value in the flight assurance and safety decision-making of rocket launch.