民用飞机运行风险评估方法

对民用飞机进行风险评估是十分必要的,为了降低民用飞机的运行风险,通过分析民用飞机运行风险研究现状,对于单机,给出故障模式影响分析方法(FMEA)和故障树分析方法(FTA)相结合的单机风险评估方法;对于机队,首先,通过维修计划,利用民用飞机历史运行数据估算风险暴露次数;然后,在浴盆曲线的偶然失效期和耗损失效期分别建立风险计算模型和未纠正机队风险分析方法,并通过实际算例,获得机队风险变化趋势及面临的风险值.对上述方法进行分析归纳,给出了三种降低运行风险的改进方向,有效降低了民用飞机的运行风险.

Operation risk assessment methodof civil aircraft

In this paper, the research status of risk assessment method has been analyzed for civil aircraft operating. The method ofprobabilistic risk assessment inaircraft has been established based on the FMEA and FTA. Three type methods have been presented to calculate the fleet risk: The probability forecast of fleet has been developed by maintenance plan and historical data. The fleet risk model has been established at random failures period.Uncorrected fleet risk assessment method andthe case have been establishedat wear-out period. The fleet risk trends, influencing factors as well as risk value may occur have been given.Compared withfour methods, the suitable operation risk methods for civil aircraft and fleet have been established in variable states over the remaining life of the fleet. Through these methods, the risk of civil aircraft would be reduced effectively during operation.