导弹命中精度一致性分析及评估

命中精度是导弹性能考核的重要指标，对于反舰导弹的命中精度评定，常常采用命中概率这一精度指标。在反舰导弹命中精度评估的过程中，单独采用经典方法来评估导弹的命中概率时，不同的评估方法可能会带来不一致的评估结果，因此会造成较大的评估风险。为了提高评估结果的一致性，降低评估风险，本文首先改进了基于正态分布的命中概率评估方法，提出了基于Bootstrap重采样的命中概率估计新方法，进一步联合基于二项分布的命中概率评估方法，对导弹的命中精度进行一致性分析及评估。与经典方法相比，该方法降低了评估的风险，提高了评估结果的稳健性。

Consistent Analysis and Evaluation of Missile Hit Accuracy

Hit accuracy is an important index for assessing the performance of missiles. For the accuracy assessment of anti-ship missiles, the hit probability is usually used as the accuracy index. In the process of assessing the accuracy of anti-ship missiles, different assessment methods may bring inconsistent results when using the classical method. In order to improve the consistency of the evaluation results and reduce the risk of assessment, we improve the hit-precision estimation method based on normal distribution and propose a new method of interval estimation of hit probability based on Bootstrap resampling. Then we combine the hit-accuracy evaluation method based on binomial distributions for consistent analysis and evaluation of hit accuracy. Compared with the classical method, the proposed method reduces the risk of assessment and improves the robustness of the assessment results.