基于改进滑动窗多项式拟合法的 航空器4D航迹预测

准确的航迹预测是提升无人机飞行防相撞空中威胁态势预警能力的基础,针对入侵机,提出一种改进滑动窗多项式拟合航迹预测方法。主要进行两方面改进:一是对当前值之后的数个未来值预测时,为各个预测值在滑动窗内构建合适的多项式拟合方程;二是依据当前航迹值与此前有限个连续航迹值所反映出的目标运动模式信息,自适应调整拟合多项式阶数与滑动窗长度。结果表明:较之传统滑动窗多项式拟合法,本文方法具有更高的航迹预测精度,能够在一定程度上改善非合作航空器的航迹预测精度,验证了其在航迹预测中的可行性和有效性。

Track Prediction of Aircraft Based on Improved SlidingWindow Polynomial Fitting Method

Accurate track prediction is basis for improving the early warning capability for air threat situation of anti-collision, for this reason, an improved sliding window polynomial fitting track prediction method is proposed to intrusion aircraft. It mainly made two improvements: the first is to construct a suitable polynomial fitting equation for each predicted value in the sliding window for the prediction of several future values after the current values; the second is to adaptively adjust and fit the polynomial order and sliding window length according to the current track value and the target motion mode information reflected by previous finite continuous track value. Simulation result shows that, compared with traditional sliding window polynomial fitting method, the proposed method has better track prediction accuracy. It can improve the track prediction accuracy of non-cooperative aircraft to some extent, which validates its feasibility and effectiveness in track prediction.