基于Wiener过程的民用航空发动机性能可靠性预测

通过对民用航空发动机性能退化数据的分析,提出了一种有效融合先验退化数据和现场退化数据的性能可靠性评估和剩余寿命预测方法.首先在先验退化数据的基础上确定Wiener过程参数的先验分布,然后利用贝叶斯方法融合新增的现场数据,对Wiener过程参数进行更新,并在此基础上对单台发动机进行性能可靠性评估和剩余寿命预测.该方法能根据现场退化数据不断地对可靠性和剩余寿命进行更新.最后通过某航空公司发动机性能退化数据验证文中提出的方法,结果表明41号发动机在2000循环和3000循环时预测的剩余寿命相对误差分别为0.060和0.018,可以满足航空公司发动机下发计划制定的实际需要. 

Performance reliability prediction for civil aviation aircraft engine based on Wiener process

With respect to degradation data of civil aviation aircraft engine, a method which combined prior degradation information with current degradation data was proposed to assess performance reliability and residual life. Firstly, on the basis of prior degradation information, prior distributions of Wiener process parameters were confirmed. Secondly, by using Bayesian method, prior distributions could be updated to posterior distributions, and then the reliability and residual life of an engine were evaluated based on the posterior distributions. The proposed method can update the evaluation results of reliability and residual life whenever new degradation data is available. Finally, a practical example of degradation data of civil aviation aircraft engine was used to testify the validity of the proposed model. The result shows that the deviation of No.41 engine in 2000 cycles and 3000 cycles is 0.060 and 0.018, which satisfies the management requirement of engine fleet of airlines.