基于故障机理和伪失效寿命的 电子产品剩余寿命预测

针对传统电子产品可靠性评估中存在的不足,提出了一种基于故障机理和伪失效寿命的电子产品剩余寿命预测方法。首先,基于电子产品的故障模式、故障机理分析,确定产品敏感性能参数;然后,对敏感参数退化量进行监测,建立电子产品退化轨迹模型,利用最大似然法估计其参数;最后,根据电子产品退化轨迹,设定故障阈值,得到电子产品寿命分布。通过仿真表明,该方法评估精度较高,对电子产品的可靠性评估有一定的参考价值。

Residual Life Prediction for Electronic Products Based on Fault Mechanism and Pseudo-Failure Data

According to the disadvantages of the conventional reliability estimation of electronic products, a useful life pre.diction method of electronic products was put forward which was based on the fault mechanism and pseudo-failure data.First of all, based on the analysis of failure modes and mechanism, the sensitive performance parameters of the productwere determined. In addition, by monitoring the degradation amount of sensitive parameters, the model of electronics degra.dation path was built and its parameters were estimated by using maximum likelihood method. Ultimately, by setting thefault threshold value, the life distribution of electronic products was obtained. Simulations showed that the evaluation accu.racy of the method was higher,which provided certain reference to evaluate the reliability of electronic products.