空间碎片预警中的碰撞概率方法研究

由于空间碎片对飞行在地球轨道上的航天器危害日益严重,所以必须采取一些有效的防护措施,对于那些直径大于10cm的碎片,通常是采用主动规避的方法来进行防护．为了避免传统的Box判据造成的过多错误预警,碰撞概率模型开始被应用于空间碎片预警,本文以空间站为例,将碰撞概率方法与传统Box区域判定法进行比较,介绍碰撞概率计算模型的建立方法,基于位置误差矩阵的碰撞概率P_c的算法,并针对实际交会事例进行了计算和分析．

Collision Probability Analysis and Application of Cataloged Space Debris

With the expansion of the human's activity in exploring,utilizing the outer space,pro- tecting space environment have become the most significant task in space navigation.Since the neglect of the space debris environment in the past century,the total number of orbital space debris increases rapidly,which leads to an unacceptable large risk of collision to spacecraft.Space Debris Collision Avoidance (SDCA) is the only strategy to reduce the risk of collision,when the dimension of space debris is lager than 10cm.The decision whether the avoiding maneuver is necessary depends on the analysis of conjunction,the rigorous calculation and assessment of collision risk between space- craft and debris and compare to the collision criterion.This paper initially introduces the flow of the Space Debris Collision Avoidance System (SDCAS),with comparing of the two kinds of warning criterion,the main topic on method of collision probability is evoked.Collision probability is a new type of warning criterion,which not only takes the rniss distance into consideration,but regards all the geometrical parameters during the approach as the factor to the collision risk,combining with all influence of these parameters.Eventually,with the detailed analysis,the effect of the covariance or uncertainty to the collision probability has been drawn to the surface,which plays an indispensable role in measuring the risk of collision.The attitude of the error ellipse which is constructed by the covariance has also affect the result of collision probability.Based on the analysis of covariance,the method of collision probability posts many advantages to the Box method.Especially,the rate of false warning has been decreased dramatically.