基于贝叶斯网络的航空灾害成因机理探析

为了预防和矫正航空事故诱发因素的萌生与发展,改善民航安全管理的科学性和可靠性,进一步降低事故率,减少航空灾害造成的损失.针对航空灾害的形成特点,探讨致灾因素的相互作用是成因机理分析的关键.基于贝叶斯网络模型,综合运用诊断推理和支持推理形式,分析致灾因素的因果关系,揭示了人、机、环境与管理因素相互作用的内在规律.通过高斯贝叶斯网络在典型案例致灾成因机理分析中的应用,挖掘隐含的内部因素对系统的影响程度,发现了隐含因素从不确定性状态向确定性状态的演变过程,以及表层因素与隐含因素的关系.

Formation mechanism analysis of aviation calamity based on Bayesian network

In order to prevent the emergence of accident-inducing elements and control the further development of them, to improve aviation security management to be scientific and reliable, and decrease the accident rate and aviation calamity loss. It is a key of formation mechanism analysis to probe into interaction of the factors to cause an aviation calamity in accordance with the characteristics. Causality of the factors was analyzed and the interaction law of human, aircraft, environment and management factors is revealed by means of the application of both diagnosis and support inference form based on Bayesian network model. The effects coming from the connotative internal factors of the system were investigated, and the evolution process of the connotative factors from the uncertain state to the certain state and relationships between the external factors and the internal factors were found with formation mechanism analyses of a typical aviation calamity case according to Gauss Bayesian network.