Theoretical modelling of X-ray fluorescence signals for different lunar compositions and dependence on solar activity

We present a forward modelling technique for calculating the surface X-ray spectra for a variety of lunar terrains. Our calculations considered variations in solar fluxes from solar quiescent condition to large flare activity (M1 flare), and expected elemental concentrations in the target, as well as yield, instrumental, and viewing geometry parameters for X-ray induced fluorescence from the lunar surface. Additionally, we present estimates of anticipated XRF signals from prominent K_α lines observable by a collimated 14 cm² X-ray detector from a 100 km lunar orbit with ∼20 km spatial resolution. Our results show that Mg, Al and Si characteristic K_α lines can be observed for all solar conditions. The Ca K_α lines line can be differentiated from a fixed background during more energetic solar conditions such as C1 and M1 flares, whereas Ti and Fe lines are identifiable only during C1 and M1 solar flare conditions for Apollo 12 site composition. Both the K_α X-ray intensity ratios of Mg/Si and Al/Si correlate well with concentration ratios of Mg/Si and Al/Si, respectively, for B1 and M1 solar conditions. The K_α X-ray intensity ratios of Fe/Si and Ca/Si correlates with concentration ratios of Fe/Si and Ca/Si, respectively, for M1 solar condition. In principle, the modelling technique outlined here can be used to determine absolute elemental abundances (Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Ti and Fe) from X-ray spectra measured during recent and future lunar missions.