混合不确定信息航天机构可靠性综合分析方法

为更加准确全面描述和分析航天机构的概率、非概率和模糊信息混杂模型的可靠性,提出非概率-模糊-概率信息统一的可靠性模型。在凸集非概率的基础上,结合模糊随机类信息,同时考虑机构系统的响应域落在失效域和不落在失效域两种情况下的可靠性度量。统一的可靠性模型运用基于凸集非概率模型、模糊割集方法和概率可靠度方法对非概率和模糊概率信息相容处理,然后对这两种情况分别进行可靠性分析。当系统的响应域落在失效域时,将统一模型中的区间信息用基于区间均匀分布的二阶拟合可靠性分析方法(SORM)进行分析,用蒙特卡罗仿真抽样方法计算统一模型的可靠度量化值。当系统的响应域不落在失效域时,将统一模型归一到凸集模型中,用凸集模型融合模糊和概率信息,并用HL-RF求解非概率可靠性指标。最后文章通过数值案例和某卫星天线双轴驱动机构的工程案例对提出的方法进行验证。

Comprehensive Reliability Analysis of the Aerospace Mechanism with Hybrid Uncertainty Information

In order to describe and analyze the reliability of a aerospace mechanism system with hybrid uncertainty information of probabilistic, non-probabilistic and fuzzy more accurately, firstly a unified reliability model based on the probabilistic and non-probabilistic theory is proposed. This modeling method combines the random and fuzzy uncertainty information based on the convex set non-probabilistic model. And both mix and separate of the system′s response area and the failure area are considered. Then the system′s reliability of these two situations is analyzed by unifying both probabilistic information and non-probabilistic information from the system. When the two areas mixed each other, the unified model utilizes the second order reliability method (SORM) to transform the interval non-probabilistic information into the interval uniform distribution information and then calculates the reliability by use of the Monte-Carlo simulation; Otherwise, the unified model is used to calculate the reliability index by use of the uniform convex theory, the fuzzy cut set theory and the HL-RF optimization algorithm. At last, the method is verified by using the numerical examples and the engineering examples of the satellite antenna′s biaxial driving mechanism system.