某型发动机性能衰退的统计分析和预测

本文根据500多台次经过0～3次翻修的同一型号发动机的台架性能,运用统计和综合分析的方法对发动机性能衰退进行了分析。提出了反映发动机整体性能的总体性能指数的概念。建立了翻修性能衰退的数学模型,并对性能衰退的发展趋势进行了预测。其结果与实际情况较为吻合,从而为发动机的使用和寿命研究提供了依据。 

STATISICAL ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF AEROENGINE DETERIORATION

An aeroengine deteriorates in the course of its service.Although its perfomance may be restored to some extent after overhaul,it goes down gradually in general.Based on the statistical information analysis of the test bed performance decay of 500 engines after 0 to 3 overhauls,a concept of an overall performance index is proposed to reflect the overall performance of the engine.According to this concept,a mathematical model of the engine deterioration is presented which is established by means of the exponential smoothing theory.The prediction of the engine deterioration has been made whcih is quite consistent with the practice.The final analysis shows that it is necessary and also feasible to adopt the method of statistical and synthetic analysis for the overall engine performance decay of both randomness and regularity and,what is more,with many parameters.