星载原子钟在轨剩余寿命预测方法研究

原子钟是导航卫星最关键载荷之一, 开展原子钟健康状态评估与寿命预测相关工作, 对于及时掌握原子钟性能和运行状况, 确保卫星导航系统提供高可用性连续性完好性的服务, 具有重要意义。结合星载原子钟在轨失效特性分析, 提出了一种综合考虑原子钟随机失效与耗损失效的剩余寿命预测方法。该方法融合利用原子钟寿命周期内产生的多源多维数据, 通过概率统计和机器学习的途径实现原子钟的剩余寿命预测。经案例验证, 所提方法合理有效, 具有一定的工程应用价值。 

Method for predicting on-orbit residual life of satellite atomic clock

An atomic clock is one of the most critical loads of a navigation satellite. It is thus of great significance to carry out the work related to the health assessment and residual life prediction of atomic clocks to understand the performance and the health status of the atomic clock in time and to ensure that the satellite navigation system provides services with high availability and continuity. Based on the analysis of on-orbit failure characteristics of the atomic clock, a method for residual life prediction of the satellite atomic clock is presented in this paper. The method considers the random failure and the loss failure of the atomic clock comprehensively based on the multi-dimensional data generated in the life cycle of the atomic clock, and predicts residual life by means of probability statistics and machine learning. Case studies show that the method proposed is reasonable, effective, and applicable to engineering practices.