A summary of the applications of a weighted average method determining times of solar cycle extrema

This paper is a summary of our recent researches on the applications of a weighted average method determining times of solar cycle extrema in the prediction of solar activity. Some correlation coefficients among the parameters in solar cycle according to this definition are higher than those according to the conventional definition. The descending time is found to be correlated (r = −0.77) with the ascending time 3 cycles earlier. The amplitude of solar cycle is found to be correlated (r = −0.77) with the max–max solar cycle length 2 cycles earlier. The ascending time is found to be correlated (r = −0.72) with the amplitude. A newly defined parameter called effective duration is found to be well correlated (r = 0.86) with the amplitude 5 cycles later. These correlations suggest that earlier cycles should influence later ones. The next (24th) solar cycle is estimated to start in March 2007 ± 7 months, reach its maximum in January 2011 ± 14 months, with a size of 150 ± 22, larger than those from some correlations according to the conventional definition.