对舰面温度数据的建模及其趋势和周期性分析

在系统建模理论的基础上,运用改进的动态数据建模方法,文章对某舰面温度数据进行建模并验证了模型的适用性,然后根据建立的模型进行了趋势和周期性分析。根据模型的适用性检验发现,对所研究的温度数据而言,ARMA(6,5)模型是最合适的,且其具有一定的线性趋势,但周期性不很明显。所有的建模和分析过程均在MATLAB上实现。

Modeling and Analyzing of Trend and Periodicity To the Surface Temperature of a Ship

The paper introduces the dynamic data system modeling method and the latent roots analyzing method of trend and periodicity. Using the improved system modeling method, the paper studies the model of the surface temperature of a ship and verifies the model's validity. Based on the adaptability test of the model, we can draw the conclusions that the ARMA (6, 5) model is most suitable for the surface temperature of a ship and the model is stable. Then using the latent roots analyzing method, the paper does the simple analysis through the ARMA (6, 5) model. The analyzing result is rather satisfying. All the modeling and analyzing procedures are realized by MATLAB software. The result shows that the methods are simple and easy to be applied in practice.