Implications of previous space commercialization experiences for the reusable launch vehicle

In evaluating the prospects for the development of a commercially viable RLV, it may be useful to examine ’lessons learned‘ from previous space commercialization efforts– both those that succeeded and those that did not. It can be argued that several distinct streams of market and technological development may have to converge for successful commercialization of space systems to occur. Factors influencing the prospects for commercialization include the size and growth rate of the potential customer base, the extent to which a governmental customer exists to underpin the market, the development of associated ’value-added‘ markets, the stability of governmental policies, the availability of enabling or enhancing infrastructure, the levels of technological and business risk, and the degree to which competitive markets exist. This paper examines two previous space commercialization experiences, evaluates the relative importance of the various factors that influence the prospects for success of commercialization efforts, and assesses the implications of those factors for the commercial viability of the proposed RLV.