我国先进战机出厂费用的预估方法

由于年代上的差别、技术水平的提高和国内外研发体制的不同,国外已有的成熟估算模型不能直接用于国内先进战斗机(三代以上的战斗机)的出厂费用估算.针对这种问题,研究了国内外军工体制的差异、先进战斗机的新技术特征和研制过程的新特点对费用产生的影响,将研制体制、引进仿制、航电技术升级、改进改型和研制周期拖延5种因素考虑到费用计算当中.根据战斗机出厂费用数据统计,以Burns估算模型为基础,引入了相关的"费用因子",采用比例缩放、最小误差等方法,建立了一种国内先进战斗机出厂费用估算的新模型.以国外先进战斗机和国内三型战斗机作为算例,验证了新模型的有效性和实用性.

Estimation method of domestic advanced fighter’s fly-away cost

Because of the generation difference,the improvement in technology and the discrepancy of research and development(R&D) system,the foreign estimation models,which have been extensively used until now,cannot be applied to calculate the domestic advanced fighter’s fly-away cost.To solve this problem,the differences between domestic and foreign military industry system,the technical features of advanced fighters,and the new features in R&D process were studied.In the process of cost calculation,5 new factors were taken into account,including R&D system,import and imitation of foreign fighters,technical improvement of avionics,modification and upgrade of previous fighters,discontinuity and delay of R&D process.Based on the cost statistics and Burns model,those cost coefficients related to the above-mentioned factors were introduced into the calculation and a new model suitable for estimating the fly-away cost of advanced domestic fighters was constructed by means of scale and the least error.Some cases such as the foreign advanced fighters and domestic type-3 fighters were performed using this model,and the simulation results show the new model’s validity and practicality.