| 基于专家信息的先验分布融合方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘琦,冯静,周经伦.基于专家信息的先验分布融合方法[J].中国空间科学技术,2004,24(3):68-71. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘琦 冯静 周经伦 |
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| 作者单位： | 国防科学技术大学,长沙,410073 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用Bayes方法进行复杂系统可靠性分析时，先验分布的获取与表示是一个关键问题。文章研究了利用专家信息进行先验分布融合的方法，对基于AHP方法和综合因子法的先验分布权重确定方法进行了分析；在给出各先验分布权重的基础上，对多源先验信息的融合后验分布进行分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 可靠性研究 先验估计 信息处理 信息融合 贝叶斯分析 武器装备 试验分析 |
The Fusion Method for Prior Distribution Based on Expert's Information |
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| Liu Qi,Feng Jing,Zhou Jinglun.The Fusion Method for Prior Distribution Based on Expert''''s Information[J].Chinese Space Science and Technology,2004,24(3):68-71. |
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| Authors: | Liu Qi Feng Jing Zhou Jinglun |
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| Abstract: | How to acquire proper prior distribution is a key problem in complex system Bayesian reliability evaluation. In this paper, the application of expert's information in prior distribution fusion is studied. Based on AHP and synthesis factor methods, the weight factor calculation method is presented. Finally with the fused prior distribution, the posterior distribution is analyzed. |
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| Keywords: | Reliability study Prior estimation Information processing Analyzing |
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