航空公司飞行安全综合评估研究

人的因素是影响飞行安全的关键因素,并且各决策因素具有难以度量的不确定性.以机组人为因素为主要研究对象,利用SHELL模型建立飞行安全评估指标体系,并利用AHP方法计算评估指标体系中各个指标的权重;运用物元理论建立评估模型并利用该模型进行飞行安全综合评估,找出影响飞行安全的主要指标;通过实例验证所用方法的可行性、有效性.结果表明:所用方法可行、有效,能够最大限度地解决评估过程中的不确定性,可为航空公司进行飞行安全管理提供一个可行的方法.

Research on comprehensive evaluation of Airline Flight Safety

Given that human factors are the key factors that affect flight safety, and the decision-making factors are difficult to measure, so the SHELL model and the matter element theory were combined to carry out the study of flight safety comprehensive assessment. Based on the SHELL model, the flight safety assessment index system is established by the human factors of the aircrew as the main object. The weights of each index in the evaluation index system are calculated by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The evaluation model was established by the matter element theory to calculate the correlation degree of evaluation index for each security level, and then the comprehensive evaluation result of flight safety assessment is calculated. Through further analysis of the results, the key factors influencing flight safety can be found in order that airlines can take precautions in advance accordingly, safety management can be strengthened and the occurrence of flight accidents can be avoided. At the end of the article, an example verifies that the method is feasible and valid, and the uncertainty of the assessment process can be solved to the maximum extent. It provides a feasible method for flight safety management of airlines.