Space weather: its effects and predictability

Terrestrial technology is now, and increasingly, sensitive to space weather. Most space weather is caused by solar storms and the resulting changes to the Earth's radiation environment and the magnetosphere. The Sun as the driver of space weather is under intense observation but remains to be adequately modelled. Recent spacecraft measurements are greatly improving models of solar activity, the interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere, and models of the radiation belts. In-situ data updates the basic magnetospheric model to provide specific details of high-energy electron flux at satellite orbits. Shock wave effects at the magnetopause can also be coarsely predicted. However, the specific geomagnetic effects at ground level depend on the calculation of magnetic and electric fields and further improvements are needed. New work on physical models is showing promise of raising geomagnetic and ionospheric predictability above the synoptic climatological level. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.