太阳10.7 cm射电流量中期预报模型研究(I)

采用时间序列模型中的自回归方法开展了F10.7中期预报研究. 预报试验和误差分析结果表明, 在太阳活动水平较低、F10.7 的27天周期性明显时自回归预报方法的预报精度高, 具有较为理想的预报效果, 但在日面有大活动区产生和消亡时预报效果不理想. 这说明时间序列模型中的自回归方法能够较好地反映太阳F10.7的27天周期性特征, 对F10.7中期预报模型的建立有一定适用性.通过对2005年9月21日至2007年6月7日期间预报结果的比较可以看出, 自回归分析方法预报的精度与美国空军预报的相当.

Modeling Research of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux 27-day Forecast (I)

Due to the application requirement of high layer atmosphere density model and ionosphere model, the forecast method research of 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7 index) is one of the important subjects. The middle term forecast of F10.7 is more difficult than the long term and short term forecast because of the lack of comprehending physical progress and the laws of solar active region revolution. The main middle term forecast methods of F10.7 are time-sequence model and empirical model in consideration of observational information of solar active region. In this paper, autoregression method was applied to the F10.7 27-day forecast research. The period of forecast experiment was from May 1, 1996 to April 12, 2007. According to the results of forecast error analysis, the prediction precision was satisfying when solar activity was low and F10.7 showed obvious 27-day periodic tendency, but was unsatisfying when large region appeared on the disk or disappeared from the disk rapidly. Compared with the forecast result of American Air Force (AAF) forecast from September 21, 2005 to June 7, 2006, the prediction Accuracy of autoregression method was similar to that of AAF. From all of these, we can see this linear predictive method could reflect F10.7 27-day periodicity, and was applicable for F10.7 27-day forecast in a certain extent. The research result in this paper is a basis of the further work of constructing precise model of F10.7 middle term forecast.