Comparative assessment of human–Mars-mission technologies and architectures

We compare a variety of mission scenarios to assess the strengths and weaknesses of options for Mars exploration. The mission design space is modeled along two dimensions: trajectory architectures and propulsion system technologies. We examine direct, semi-direct, stop-over, semi-cycler, and cycler architectures, and we include electric propulsion, nuclear thermal rockets, methane and oxygen production on Mars, Mars water excavation, aerocapture, and reusable propulsion systems in our technology assessment. The mission sensitivity to crew size, vehicle masses, and crew travel time is also examined. Many different combinations of technologies and architectures are applied to the same Mars mission to determine which combinations provide the greatest potential reduction in the injected mass to LEO. We approximate the technology readiness level of a mission to rank development risk, but omit development cost and time calculations in our assessment. It is found that Earth–Mars semi-cyclers and cyclers require the least injected mass to LEO of any architecture and that the discovery of accessible water on Mars has the most dramatic effect on the evolution of Mars exploration.