命中精度Bayes推断中基于P值的验前可信度建模

在对散布参数验前可信度的定义与必要性进行分析的基础上，给出了给定散布参数（方差）的P值计算模型，构建了一维散布分析时验前分布可信度的P值模型，给出了验前P值与验前可信度的定义，并对其变动情况进行了阐述，给出了验前分布的拒绝条件.对二维散布分析条件下的验前可信度分析，分别构建了验前P值的独立求解模型和集成求解模型.并从0.05，0.2，0.4区分的数据区间，给出了验前分布选择的原则和要求.基于案例比较可见，验前可信度能较为显著地完成验前分布的差异化比较，相对现有的仅对验前可信度的定性说明，基于P值的验前可信度建模与计算，不仅能完成验前可信度的量化计算，而且能从概率的角度对验前分布选择的正确性进行假设检验. 

Modeling for prior distribution's reliability based on P value in Bayes inference of hit accuracy analysis

Based on the analysis of the concept and necessity of prior reliability for dispersion parameters prior distribution, the P value calculating model for given dispersion parameter (variance) was presented, the prior distributions reliability calculating model for one dimensional dispersion parameter was constructed, and the concepts of prior P value and prior reliability were presented. The variation of prior reliability was described, and the reject rule of prior distribution was given. To the analysis of prior reliability for two dimensional dispersion parameter, the independent solution model and integrated solution model for prior P value were carried out respectively. And with the interval divided by 005, 02 and 04, the principle and requirement of prior distribution selection was presented. From cases comparison result, it was easy to see that prior reliability can be easy to complete the difference comparison of prior distributions, and compared with traditional method only could describe prior reliability from qualitative view, the P value model not only calculated the numeric of prior reliability, but also could complete the correctness hypothesis test of prior distribution form probability view.