| 基于马尔科夫链模型的脉动装配线运行状态预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦亚茹,侯志霞,吕瑞强,刘毅萍.基于马尔科夫链模型的脉动装配线运行状态预测[J].航空制造技术,2017(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦亚茹 侯志霞 吕瑞强 刘毅萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国航空制造技术研究院数字化制造技术航空科技重点实验室,北京,100024 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国航空工业集团公司技术创新基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了影响脉动生产线运行的因素和状态预测的必要性,提出了基于马尔科夫链模型的状态预测方法。基于马尔科夫链预测理论,对脉动生产线运行状态划分,确定状态转移矩阵,建立马尔科夫预测模型,并对模型准确性进行验证。
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| 关 键 词： | 脉动生产线 状态划分 状态转移矩阵 马尔科夫预测模型 |
Prediction on Pulse Production Line Running State Based on Markov Forecast Model |
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| QIN Yaru,HOU Zhixia,L Ruiqiang,LIU Yiping.Prediction on Pulse Production Line Running State Based on Markov Forecast Model[J].Aeronautical Manufacturing Technology,2017(5). |
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| Authors: | QIN Yaru HOU Zhixia L Ruiqiang LIU Yiping |
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| Institution: | QIN Yaru,HOU Zhixia,L(U) Ruiqiang,LIU Yiping |
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| Abstract: | The current application of pulse production line is reviewed.The factors influencing pulse production line and the necessity of state prediction are analyzed.Then,a method of state prediction based on Markov chain model is proposed.Based on Markov chain forecast theory,the running states of pulse production line are classified.The state transition matrix is determined and Markov forecast model is established.Lastly,the validity of the model is estimated. |
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| Keywords: | Pulse production line State division State transition matrix Markov forecast model |
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