中国石油安全的态势及战略选择

国内石油资源有限,石油生产能力持续下降,是中国石油不安全因素中的国内供给性因素;世界石油资源分布不均衡,石油供给的国际主体过于集中,运输安全不客乐观,是中国石油不安全因素中的国际供给性因素;而中国产业结构的演化以及国际石油需求主体对中国的竞争与排挤,则是中国石油不安全因素中的需求性因素。因此,中国应从国内与国际两个方面来进行石油安全战略安排,重点探索从消极的防御型体系向积极的主动出击型体系转变的新思路：一方面,积极实施能源多元化,贯彻节约能源的方针,探讨筹备建立石油战略储备,构建与完善石油安全管理体系,等等;另一方面,积极开展石油外交,实施“走出去”战略,推进石油进口渠道多元化,重视石油价格安全,筹建远洋石油运输船队,等等。

Research on the Situation of Chinese Petroleum Security and Strategic Choice

Along with the continuous and rapid development of the national economy,the gap of Chinese petroleum between supply and demand has being enlarged year by year and the dependence of petroleum upon foreign trade has been increasingly risen,the secuity of petrolem supply has bvecome a strategic issue of the social economy development and the national stability.The reasons that account for deterioration of Chinese petroleum secrity situation should be as follows:the extremely imbalance of distribution of the world oil resources,the continuing decline in productivity of the petroleum in export countries,the fierce competition and exclusion caused by the international petroleum demand bodies,the evolution of Chinese industrial structure which strengthened the status and function of potroleum in the national economy,the domestichuge population base which further increase the petroleum demand adn soon.Based on the factors analyzed above,we should carry on the petroleum aecurity strategyarrangement from the domestic and international aspects and focus on exploring the new way of transition from the negative defense sysytem to the positive and active anttackingsystem:On one hand,we should put the energy multiplication in practice,implement the policy of the energy-saving,discuss the establishment of petroleum strategic reaervation,the construct and perfect the petroleum safetycontrol system and so on;On the other hand,we should develop the petroleum diplomacy actively,carry out the implement of the "go-out"strategy,advace the multiplication in petroleum import channel,and emphasize on the petroleum price security and prepare for the constructionof the sea petroleum transport fleet etc.