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Provocative radio transients and base rate bias: A Bayesian argument for conservatism
Institution:1. School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, PR China;2. Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, PR China;3. Ningbo Urban Environment Observation and Research Station-NUEORS, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo, PR China;1. Department of Inorganic Materials, School of Minerals Processing and Bioengineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, PR China;2. School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410083, PR China;1. School of Textile and Material Engineering, Dalian Polytechnic University, Dalian 116034, China;2. Department of Electronic Engineering and State Key Laboratory of Millimeter Waves, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China;1. State Key Laboratory of Functional Materials for Informatics, Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200050, PR China;2. Microwave Devices and Integrated Circuits Department, Institute of Microelectronics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, PR China
Abstract:Most searches for alien radio transmissions have focused on finding omni-directional or purposefully earth-directed beams of enduring duration. However, most of the interesting signals so far detected have been transient and non-repeatable in nature. These signals could very well be the first data points in an ever-growing data base of such signals used to construct a probabilistic argument for the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence. This paper looks at the effect base rate bias could have on deciding which signals to include in such an archive based upon the likely assumption that our ability to discern natural from artificial signals will be less than perfect.
Keywords:Radio transient  Base rate bias  Astrobiology  Extra-terrestrial intelligence  SETI  Bayesian
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