大型低轨航天器与星座卫星的碰撞风险研究

针对商业小卫星星座迅猛发展对航天器飞行安全造成潜在威胁的问题，以600 km高度星座和大型低轨航天器为研究对象，通过区域方法(BOX)和碰撞概率风险评估方法，分析了星座与大型低轨航天器的碰撞风险。根据星座轨道演化分析表明，整个星座卫星与大型低轨航天器可能发生碰撞的时间相对集中，持续时间约 1~ 2年。BOX方法计算结果表明，每颗卫星与大型低轨航天器交会，并进入红色预警门限的交会次数约10次左右。碰撞概率计算结果表明，约有5%的卫星进入红色预警门限，星座如果在寿命末期采取无控再入将对大型低轨航天器在1~2年内产生较大的威胁。

Analysis of Collision Risk Between Constellation Satellites and Large Low Orbit Spacecraft

Since the development of commercial small satellite constellations brings great potential risk to the flight safety of spacecraft, the collision risk between the 600 km-height constellation satellites and the large low-orbit spacecraft is analyzed in this paper. The BOX method and the collision probability method are used to calculate the collision risk. According to the orbital evolution analysis of the constellation satellites, the possible collision time is relatively centralized, and the duration is about 1-2 years. The results of the BOX method show that the number of the red alert conjunction is about 10 times for each satellite with the large low-orbit spacecraft. The results of the collision probability method show that about 5% of the constellation satellites might trigger the red alert threshold, which indicates that the constellations will bring great potential risk to the large low-orbit spacecraft within 1-2 years if it uses the uncontrolled reentry at the end of their lifetime.