Strategy to search fragments from breakups in GEO |
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Authors: | M. Uetsuhara T. Hanada H. Yamaoka T. Yanagisawa H. Kurosaki Y. Kitazawa |
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Affiliation: | 1. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan;2. Department of Physics, Kyushu University, 6-10-1 Hakozaki, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka 812-8581, Japan;3. Japan Space Exploration Agency, 7-44-1 Jindaiji Higashi-machi, Chofu, Tokyo 182-8522, Japan;4. IHI Corporation, 3-1-1 Toyosu, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-8710, Japan |
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Abstract: | This paper proposes a strategy to search fragments from breakups in the Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) region based upon population prediction and motion prediction by means of ground-based optical observations. Breakup fragments have uncertainties in the states such as their position and motion, or even in their existence. Population prediction and motion prediction resolve those uncertainties. Population prediction evaluates the time-averaged distribution of fragments, whose position at a given time is unknown, in the celestial sphere. Motion prediction evaluates the expected motion of fragments appeared in image series acquired by a telescope’s CCD camera. This paper logically describes procedures of the search strategy, and provides mathematical expressions of population prediction and motion prediction. This paper also validates the search strategy via actual observations, in which a confirmed breakup in the GEO region is selected as a target. It is concluded that the proposed strategy is valid even for searching uncataloged fragments from breakups in the GEO region. |
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Keywords: | Space debris Predictive analysis Spacecraft breakup Optical observation Origin identification |
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