太阳周的模糊分类和对22周的预报

本文根据模糊集合理论, 讨论了太阳周的分类和预报.利用模糊聚类分析方法对22周作出的预报如下:21周降段长。Δt_降(21周)=8或9年;22周开始于1987或1988年;22周初始谷值R_M头(22周)=4.3;22周上升段长。Δt_升(22周)=4年;22周极大年均值R_M(22周)=118.9;22周降段长。Δt_降(22周)=(6.5)或8年. 

The Fuzzy Classification of the Solar Cycle and the Prediction for the 22nd Solar Cycle

In this paper, on the basis of fuzzy set theory the classification and the prediction of solar cycles are discussed. By using the method of fuzzy cluster analysis, a prediction for the 22nd solar cycle has been made. The results are as follows:The length of the declining time for the 21st cycle is 8 or 9 years; the begining time for the 22nd cycle is the year 1987 or 1988; the first minimum of the year, s mean value of the relative number is 4.3; the length of the ascending duration for the 22nd cycle is 4 years; the maxima of the year, s mean value of the relative number is 118.9; the length of the declining duration for the 22nd cycle is 6.5 or 8 years.