飞机空调系统动态安全分析

目前，飞机空调系统的安全性分析多基于固定故障状态，未考虑故障动态发展与变化，且仅能进行定性分析，因此有必要对飞机空调系统开展精准安全性分析。基于空调系统FMEA 中的根故障参数，借助Markov 时间序列求解故障横向转移路径，利用联合概率分布及Bayes 算法求解故障等级与概率，实现横向定性又定量的安全性分析；运用Monte Carlo 仿真求解故障纵向升级路径、故障等级与概率，实现纵向定性又定量的安全性分析。结果表明：动态定性又定量的安全性分析可以精准地判定飞机空调系统的安全性、故障状态下的放行结论及放行要求，具有较好的工程应用价值。

Safety analysis of aircraft air conditioning system with dynamic AHP

At present, the safety analysis of aircraft air conditioning system is based on the fixed fault state, without considering the dynamic development and change of the fault. At the same time, only qualitative analysis can be carried out. It is necessary to carry out accurate safety analysis on aircraft air conditioning system. Based on the root fault parameters in the FMEA of the air conditioning system, Markov time series is used to solve the lateral fault transfer path, and the joint probability distribution and Bayes algorithm are used to solve the fault level and probability, thus realizing the lateral qualitative and quantitative safety analysis; The Monte Carlo simulation is used to solve the longitudinal upgrading path, fault level and probability of the fault, and the longitudinal qualitative and quantitative security analysis is realized. The results show that the dynamic quantitative and qualitative safety analysis can accurately determine the safety of the aircraft air conditioning system, the release conclusion and the release requirements under fault conditions, and has good engineering application value.