用于复杂装备费用驱动因子筛选的灰色凸关联模型

针对复杂装备费用预测中样本少和费用影响因素繁多的问题,分析以往灰色关联度的缺陷,运用改进的灰色凸关联度建立费用影响因素与费用之间的灰色关联模型。依据灰色凸关联度的大小和接近程度筛选费用驱动因子,利用所选择的驱动因子建立多元回归模型。与已有文献中的方法进行对比,结果表明本文方法具有较高的预测精度,说明改进的灰色凸关联度模型能够诊断复杂装备费用的关键影响因素。

Convex Grey Correlation Model for Identification of Driving Factors of Complex Equipment Cost

In view of the problems like fewer samples and various influencing factors in the prediction of complex equipment costs, the defects in the previous grey relational degree are analyzed and a new grey correlation model of influence factors and cost is established by using improved convex grey correlation. The size of the convex grey correlation degree and the proximity are used to screen the cost driving factor, and a multiple-regression model is established based on the chosen driving factors. Compared with the existing methods, the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy, which means the improved convex grey correlation can diagnose key factors of complex equipment cost.