基于蒙特卡洛法的制导子弹药命中概率模型

针对制导子弹药命中概率模型方面研究的不足,详细分析了制导子弹药与无控子弹药在结构与作用原理方面的不同,以及制导子弹药的捕获概率、发现识别概率;结合无控子弹药落点散布规律,运用蒙特卡洛方法建立了制导子弹药命中概率计算模型,并对不同捕获概率下对给定目标的命中概率进行了分析。仿真结果表明,制导子弹药对特定目标的命中概率远高于无控子弹药,命中概率模型的建立为制导子弹药效能分析奠定了基础。

Hit Probability Model of Guidance Bullet Drug Based on Mento-Calo Method

To make up for the shortages in the research of damage probility model of guidance bullet drug, the differences between unguided submution and guidance bullet drug in structure and action principle were dis- cussed in detail. Then the models of capture probability and detection probability were studied. With the help of Mento-calo method, the hit. probability model of guidance bullet drug to given targets was established. The simulation results indicated that the guidance bullet drug was far better than unguided submunition in hit proba- bility of given armored targets. The results also provided solid theoretical basis for the analysis of submunition efficiency.