| 基于ARIMA模型的拉萨降水量时间序列分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 官晨.基于ARIMA模型的拉萨降水量时间序列分析与预测[J].华北航天工业学院学报,2011(5):16-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 官晨 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东大学数学学院,山东济南250100 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用差分自回归滑动平均模型（ARIMA）模型对西藏拉萨地区1969年至2009年的年降水量资料进行建模分析。建立的模型通过了参数的显著性检验和模型的显著性检验。模型的实证分析表明在短期内模型具有较高的预测精度,ARIMA模型可以较好的应用于降水量的预测,对相关部门采取措施应对自然灾害提供了理论支持。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列分析 ARIMA模型 降水量预测 |
Time Series Analysis and Forecast of Annual Precipitation on Lasa Based on ARIMA Model |
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| Institution: | GONG Chen(School of Mathematics,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China) |
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| Abstract: | Applying ARIMA modeling theory,this paper analyzes the annual precipitation data of Lasa area from 1969 to 2009 and establishes a model.The model has passed through the parameter significance testing and model significance testing.The model has a high precision of prediction in short term and it shows that the ARIMA model can be applied well in the forecast of precipitation.This paper has also supplying a theory foundation for the government to take action to deal with the natural disaster. |
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| Keywords: | time series analysis ARIMA model precipitation forecast |
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