以预测性为中心的维修理论和维修方式发展研究

目前，预测性维修技术尚未在维修大纲领域广泛应用，但随着大数据理论和技术的发展，以预测性为中心的维修逐渐受到关注。本文梳理了维修理论和维修方式转变的发展历程，分析了预测性维修技术的发展条件；基于 IP-180 和 MSG-3 研究了以预测性维修为中心的维修项目建立方法，指出计划性维修项目转化为预测性维修项目是可行的；总结了当前飞机预测性维修项目建立存在的困难，并给出了适用于飞机预测性维修项目建立的建议和策略。

Research on the Development of Predictive Centered Maintenance Theory and Maintenance Mode

At present, the maintenance items in the maintenance program are all planned maintenance items made by MSG-3 analysis method, so the maintenance mode still stays in the traditional scheduled maintenance mode. This paper studies the technical conditions, methods and development process of developing the planned maintenance project into the predictive maintenance project, explores the development direction of the future maintenance theory and maintenance mode, and gives strategies and suggestions for establishing the predictive centered maintenance concept and maintenance mode based on data analysis. In addition, in view of the existing implementable solutions, this paper also verifies the method and the whole process of forwarding a planned maintenance project to a predictive maintenance project through the detailed analysis of a real aircraft system case based on methodology, which is of great significance for the practical application of predictive maintenance in the current planned maintenance project.