| 一种新型航班延误组合预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁建立,李华峰.一种新型航班延误组合预测模型[J].中国民航学院学报,2011(3):1-4. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁建立 李华峰 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国民航大学计算机科学与技术学院,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学天津市智能信号与图像处理重点实验室,天津300300 [3]唐山师范学院计算机系,河北唐山063000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家863高技术计划项目（2006AAl2A106）;国家自然科学基金项目（60879015）;中国民用航空局科学基金项目（MHRD201013） |
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| 摘 要： | 为了克服单一的航班延误预测模型在预报时的缺陷，在分析航班延误的特点的情况下,提出了一种基于危险模式和灰色预测组合的新型航班延误预测的方法。对这两种预测方法的结果采用加权组合预测的方式来预测航班延误的趋势变化，预测结果是单一预测模型的加权和，加权系数动态确定。最后通过国内的某枢纽机场的航班延误情况进行了验证。实验表明该模型可以不受某一较差的预测模型影响,从而有较好的预测效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 航班延误 危险模式 抗原识别 灰预测 组合模型 |
New Composite Model for Prediction of Flight Delay |
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| DING Jian-li,LI Hua-feng.New Composite Model for Prediction of Flight Delay[J].Journal of Civil Aviation University of China,2011(3):1-4. |
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| Authors: | DING Jian-li LI Hua-feng |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Computer Science and Technology, CAUC, Tianjin 300300, China; 2. Tianjin Key Lab for Advanced Signal Processing, CA UC, Tianjin 300300, China; 3. The College of Computer Tangshan Teacher College, Tangshan 063000, China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to solve the problem of flight delay forecasting including the characteristics of airport flight operation, a new composite forecasting model based on the danger model theory and the grey model theory is proposed. The composite prediction method in this paper uses the pattern of weighted composition which is according to the occupancy proportion of the mean square errors forecasting. The model use the modified approach reflects the periodicity. The experimental result shows that the prediction results is qualified, the new model can meet the requirement of real-time prediction for the management of emergency departments. |
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| Keywords: | flight delay danger model antigen recognition grey prediction composite model |
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