飞行事故征候率警戒值的研究

为了改进民用航空飞行安全的监控手段，探讨了一种飞行事故征候率的监视和控制方法。依据中国民用航空各月飞行事故征候率统计数据，通过进行概率分布形态假设检验，证明了飞行事故征候万时率和万次率均服从正态分布和weibull分布。基于正常情况下事故征候率超出警戒值的概率小于0．1％的假设，分别给出了飞行事故征候率服从正态分布与服从Weibull分布时的警戒值。计算结果表明两种不同概率分布所得到的警戒值相对差仅为1％左右。鉴于飞行事故征候率数值非负的特性，推荐首选Weibull分布确定警戒值。另外，还依据警戒值给出了飞行事故征候率的监视和控制图，并给出了飞行事故征候率的控制准则。研究结论对于民用航空安全的监视与控制具有一定的参考应用价值。

Research on Flight Incident-rate Alerting Value

In order to improve the meaning of flight safe monitoring of civil aviation, the method on monitoring and controlling of flight Incident-rate is explored. It is demonstrated that the flight incident times per ten thousand flight hours or ten thousand flight cycles comply with the normal distribution or the Weibull distribution by goodness of fit testing of CAAC monthly flight incident rate statistic data. Suppose the probability of flight incident rate exceeding alert value is less than 0.1% under normal condition, the alert values are individually calculated according to the monthly flight incident-rate statistic data. The calculating result shows that the relative deviation between the alert values is about 1% for a normally distributed population and Weibull distributed population. Because of the flight incident rate must be not negative value, Weibull distribution is recommended to be use for calculating flight incident rate alerting value. In addition to calculating alert value, monitoring and controlling chart based on alerting value for flight incident rate is supplied, and controlling criterion is suggested for flight incident rate monitor. The research result is of higher applied importance to monitor and control flight safety level of civil aviation.