| 广汉机场强对流天气潜势预报方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐娓,龙妍妍,张甦,干全.广汉机场强对流天气潜势预报方法研究[J].中国民航飞行学院学报,2013,24(4):41-43,46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐娓 龙妍妍 张甦 干全 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国民航飞行学院广汉分院 四川广汉618307 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2008-2010年6-8月共9个月的地面观测资料、高空观测资料和探空资料,分析发生强对流天气的天气形势,进行相关性分析并使用消空法筛选有利于强对流天气发生的物理量因子和指数.分析和检验结果表明:在系统性天气过程影响下K指数、沙氏指数(SI)、700hPa假相当位温(θse(700))和地面24小时变温(△T24)对广汉机场12小时强对流天气潜势预报有较好的指导作用.
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| 关 键 词： | 强对流天气 潜势预报 相关性 消空法 |
Study on Potential Forecast of Severe Convective Weather at Guanghan Airport |
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| Xu Wei
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Long Yanyan
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Zhang Su
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Gan Quan.Study on Potential Forecast of Severe Convective Weather at Guanghan Airport[J].Journal of China Civil Aviation Flying College,2013,24(4):41-43,46. |
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| Authors: | Xu Wei Long Yanyan Zhang Su Gan Quan |
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| Institution: | Xu Wei Long Yanyan Zhang Su Gan Quan (Guanghan Sub-college of Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan, 618307, Sichuan, China) |
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| Abstract: | The 9 month sounding data （2008-2010） of ground observation, air observation and weather chart information are used to analyze the severe convective weather over Guanghan Airport. The physical reasonable factors and index in severe convective weather are selected by correlation analysis and Stepwise Decreasing FAR method. The results show that the K index, SI index, Pseudo- equivalent temperature（0se） at 700 hPa anff variable temperature of 24 hours are of good instructive sense to forecast the severe convective weather in the future of 0 --12 hours. |
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| Keywords: | Severe convective weather Potential forecast Correlation analysis Step-wise Decreasing FAR method |
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