基于机动时间的项目工期单因素不确定性分析

为了分析单个工序结束时间的变化对项目工期的敏感性,以总时差的概念及定理为基础,利用概率分析的原理及方法,确定了工序结束时间的变化在不同条件下的概率值,构建了项目工期单因素不确定性分析的指标评价体系,简要说明了指标体系中确定相关参数的思路与方法;然后,采用单因素敏感性分析法,重点分析了关键工序结束时间的变化对项目工期的敏感性,给出了不同关键工序结束时间的变化对项目工期的敏感性的判别方法,以及如何从被考虑的多个关键工序中找出需要重点考虑的对总工期敏感性最强的工序;最后,通过算例进行验证和说明.该评价体系在实践中有助于项目进度计划与控制,重点监督与控制对总工期敏感性强的工序,为项目工期的多因素不确定性分析奠定理论基础. 

Single-factor uncertainty analysis of project-s duration based on float

In order to analyze the sensitivity of variety of single activity completion time to project's duration,by probabilistic analysis principle and approach,the probability of terminative time's change of activity under different conditions was confirmed,and the system of decision evaluation index was designed which contains the method of confirming correlative parameters in the system on the basis of total float theorem.The sensitivity of variety of critical activity's completion time to project's duration was analyzed with the analysis technique of single-factor sensitivity,and how to select critical activities which are the most sensitive to total time limit from all activities considered.Finally the process was validated and illuminated by illustrating.The system is helpful to supervise and control the sensitive activity to project duration,and contribute to project scheduling and planning,which establishs theoretic foundation for analyzing multi-factor uncertainty problem of project's duration.