基于灰色关联理论的空管人误分类分析

为了定量研究空管人误致因因素，分析各人误因素关联度和验证其可靠性，达到控制人误的最终目的而开展此研究。采用D．A．Wiegmann等人的“人误分析分类系统”对空管不安全事件进行分类，运用灰色关联理论进行关联度分析。影响人误的主因素次序为组织影响、不安全行为的前提条件、不安全行为。采用灰色关联理论所得到的计算结果与Shappell等人采用专家函询方法对飞行机组所进行的研究结果基本一致；在不安全行为层面，导致不安全事件的人误因素顺序是技能差错、决策差错、违规；在团队层面，班组内部的沟通与协调不畅导致的不安全事件在各个飞行阶段都存在；在不安全行为的前提条件层面，环境因素导致的不安全事件所占比例最大。

Analysis and Classification of Human Errors in ATM Based on Grey Relativity Theory

To study the casual factors of human errors quantifiably, analyzing the correlative degree of the factors leading to human error and validate its reliability so as to control human errors. The paper first classifies unsafe events in ATM （air traffic managemint） using D.A.Wiegmann＇s human factors analysis and classification system, and then analyses gray relativity using grey relativity theory. The order of the main factors causing human errors is organizational influences, precondition for unsafe acts, and unsafe acts. The results using grey relativity theory are basically in accordance with the results of Shappell＇s reports; in the layer of unsafe acts, the order of human errors causing unsafe events is skill-based error, decision-based error, and violations; in the layer of team cooperation, unsafe events caused by ineffective team communication and coordination exist in various flight stages; in the layer of precondition for unsafe acts, unsafe events caused by environmental factors cover the largest proportion.