民用飞机进近着陆阶段灾难事故类型预测

为减少民用飞机进近着陆阶段发生灾难事故，给出了1985年至2013年灾难性事故样本，获得了3种主要事故类型和14种关键致因。提出了一种灾难事故类型的预测方法，建立了事故类型预测流程，样本事故致因作为输入层，样本事故类型作为输出层，基于BP神经网络和Elman神经网络进行多次训练和仿真。结果表明，预测的事故类型与实际情况基本吻合。针对事故致因有效判断民用飞机在进近着陆阶段潜在事故，给出纠正措施，保障航空运行安全。

Prediction of Catastrophic Accident Types of Civil Aircraft at Approach and Landing Phases

In order to reduce disaster accidents of civil aircraft at approach and landing phases,the cata-strophic accidents samples have been listed at these specific phases from 1985 to 2013 . Three main types of catastrophic accidents and its 14 key reasons are also given from the samples. Moreover,a prediction method of catastrophic accident types has been proposed and the prediction process of these accidents types are given at approach and landing phases. With accident reason as input layer,and accident type as output layer,the train and simulation have been carried out many times based on BP neural network and Elman neural network. The results show that the actual values closely match the predicted values with an acceptable level of error. The corrective measures can be taken based on the effective judgment of acci-dents that might happen at approach and landing phases.