不确定性因素下航班延误波及建模与分析

针对机场终端区日益严重的航班延误，提出了一种基于有色－时间Petri网的不确定性因素下航班延误波及分析模型。模型综合考虑航班运行尾流、跑道运行模式、跑道占用时间等运行安全间隔约束，同时根据连续航班间的信息更新，设计进离场航班序列动态调整流程，并由计算模型可得出航班延误总架次及时间。最后，依据历史延误数据分析得出不确定性因素延误的概率分布。选取上海浦东机场为背景对模型进行仿真验证，仿真结果表明，所构建模型可用于战略阶段的航班延误波及程度与过程的评估。

Modeling and Analysis of Flight Delay Propagated under Uncertainty

Based on colored-time Petri nets,a flight delays propagated analysis model under uncertainty is investigated .Lots of constraints are taken into account , such as wake vortex separation , transfer separa-tion,release separation ,and operational separation in different modes of multiple runway operations .Ac-cording to information updating between sequential flights ,dynamic adjustment process is designed .Total delay time and number can be obtained from computing model .A proof-of-experiment study case is con-ducted on a model of Pudong airport .To test scenarios representing realistic conditions ,arrival and depar-ture delay distributions are drawn using historical data and used to perturb input schedule scenarios .The result shows ,the model could be applied to estimate delays propagated degree and describe its process .