中国民航旅客量季节性问题研究

中国民航旅客量的季节性波动是经济学研究的重要命题。选取中国民航旅客量时间序列数据作为分析对象，采用年度季节强度指数（R）与月季指数（Zt），揭示中国民航旅客量的年度季节集中性与月度季节变化规律。 R值整体上呈现逐年递增的趋势，指标随季节变化明显，且按一定规律分布。 Zt 值指示4月、7月、8月、9月、10月为旺季，其余月份为淡季。民航旅客量淡旺季与游客出游行为、节假日长短、气候等因素有直接联系。研究结论为解决中国民航旅客量的淡旺季问题提供基础数据，也为调整航空公司在淡旺季时的人员、航班及其他工作安排，为缓解航空客流量供需不平衡的矛盾提供决策参考。

Investigating Seasonality of Air Passengers in China

This study investigates seasonality of air passengers in China by using seasonality intensity and seasonal decomposition .The annual concentration index of tourist revenue ( R) reveals that seasonal con-centration through the year saw a general ascending trend spanning from 2006 to 2013 .To look deeper , the seasonal decomposition explains the time serial by using monthly seasonal indices (Zt).As a result, the peak season goes to March,June,August,September and October while the off -season falls on Janu-ary,February,and April,May,July and December.In conclusion,this study implies that there are signifi-cant correlations between public festivals and holidays with seasonal variation of air passenger indexes , and the findings with important policy implications will help understanding the seasonal pattern in air pas -sengers along the year ,and mitigating the negative effects of seasonality in the future .